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EQRN - Extreme Quantile Regression Neural Networks for Risk Forecasting

This framework enables forecasting and extrapolating measures of conditional risk (e.g. of extreme or unprecedented events), including quantiles and exceedance probabilities, using extreme value statistics and flexible neural network architectures. It allows for capturing complex multivariate dependencies, including dependencies between observations, such as sequential dependence (time-series). The methodology was introduced in Pasche and Engelke (2024) <doi:10.1214/24-AOAS1907> (also available in preprint: Pasche and Engelke (2022) <doi:10.48550/arXiv.2208.07590>).

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4.55 score 18 stars 13 scripts 623 downloads

ExtremeCI - Realistic Confidence Intervals for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Statistics

This framework provides versatile algorithms to efficiently infer confidence intervals for extreme value statistics, such as extreme quantiles and return levels, that are representative of the asymmetric uncertainty spread, using extreme value theory extrapolation and the profile likelihood (see e.g., Coles (2001) <doi:10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0>). Unlike existing algorithms, the CI endpoints are found without the need for a strict prespecified range, can be covariate-dependent, and can be based on weighted samples. This package is motivated by Zeder et al. (2023) <doi:10.1029/2023GL104090> and by Pasche et al. (2026) <doi:10.1007/s10687-026-00536-9>.

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3.18 score 1 stars

ExtremeCI - Realistic Confidence Intervals for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Statistics

This framework provides versatile algorithms to efficiently infer confidence intervals for extreme value statistics, such as extreme quantiles and return levels, that are representative of the asymmetric uncertainty spread, using extreme value theory extrapolation and the profile likelihood (see e.g., Coles (2001) <doi:10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0>). Unlike existing algorithms, the CI endpoints are found without the need for a strict prespecified range, can be covariate-dependent, and can be based on weighted samples. This package is motivated by Zeder et al. (2023) <doi:10.1029/2023GL104090> and by Pasche et al. (2026) <doi:10.1007/s10687-026-00536-9>.

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1.70 score